Of Elections and Predictions

What does the future hold? Can anyone really foretell the future? Nostradamus... the prophets in the Bible... the Mayans...? Many of their predictions or prophecies have already come true except that the greatness of their divination is nothing compared to the mundane things that Filipinos tend to give more attention to - like the outcome of the automated elections. There are three things I would like to highlight about the recent election-related events in our country.

First is the automated election. It was quite remarkable for Comelec to have gathered almost 75% of election data on the first day and sent the biggest contenders to conceding to their rival candidates the folowing day. Prior to May 10, 2010 national polls, the Philippine Daily Inquirer made a very safe but practical prediction about the automated election - that on May 11, 2010, a day after the election, "the Comelec may come out in a blaze of glory or end up in a day of infamy!" The ever unbiased "walang kinikilingang" media giant cannot go wrong with this two-sided projection. I remember one World War II fortune teller who made a similar sureball prediction for Hitler. When asked by Hitler himself when would be day of his death, the fortune teller announced with all confidence, that the Fuhrer will die on a Jewish holiday. Hitler eagerly asked, "Which of the many Jewish holidays?" The fortune teller replied, "Anyday you die will become a Jewish holiday."

Well, my congratulations to the Comelec. It is not very often that we see a generally peaceful and fast election. It has proven all its critics wrong. They have all the right to bask in the glory of this hard earned success. Commissioner Larrazabal actually made an invitation to all the doomsayers earlier to join them in their thanksgiving dinner.

Second is the emergence of a "dark horse", a "native dark horse" who pulled a come-from-behind rally in the last week of the campaign for the vice presidential contest. If the trend hold up, this could be one of the greatest upsets in election history. Question is how did he do it? Was it because of the magical sway of Chiz Escudero's baton while murmuring the enchanted word NOYBI? Or was it because of the solid voting Masa of Puwersa ng Masang Pilipino of his running mate Erap Estrada? Here is my wild guess - Binay has been silently campaigning in almost all provinces of the country for so many years now - through his medical mission coordinated with Makati Med, reaching out with needy Filipinos in various municipalities. The white paper theory of the reds is very effective in poverty stricken areas. People tend to remember who brought the deepwell in their waterless community.

Third is the rise of the Marcoses. Ferdinand "Bongbong" Marcos was already proclaimed senator-elect and so is congresswoman-elect Imelda Marcos and daughter Governor-elect Imee Marcos. Who could have thought that Villar will be instrumental to bringing back together the Aquinos and the Marcoses in the same political limelight that their fathers used to be at before the declaration of Martial Law? This is literally saying that "history repeats itself". Now, this is interesting because KBL and Imelda have promised to restore the honor of her family and to recover their hard earned (not ill-gotten) wealth. Who could have predicted this?

My prediction - we only get what we deserve!

The Looming 2nd Reign of Joseph Estrada

I was asked by a friend who do I think will be the next President of the Philippines. I said Erap's second coming is looming. My friend thought I was just joking but when I said that Erap is once again moving in to Malacanang Palace after May 11 national polls, he knew I was serious in my prediction.

Why do I say Erap is going to be President again? In Philippine setting, winnability is a matter of mathematics. Ever since the two-party system was abolished (or abandoned in practice) by the traditional politicians, the multi-party system has set the stage for strategic alliances, thereby giving birth to the numbers game during elections. There are more people now eating the pie. This means that the voting populace will be distributed. The candidate that wins the election will not win by majority votes but by dominant minority votes.

Erap has a strong solid base in the voting "Masa". They number close to 7M which is around 14% of the voting population. The candidate that will capture at least 20% of the voters will most likely win the presidential race. The way things are going, the other presidential hopefuls (aside from Noynoy and Villar) are making good in the surveys and the figures are improving as the election draws nearer. Those who are not voting for Noynoy or Villar will most likely vote for the tailing candidates. This event puts Erap at the advantage side because every drop in Noynoy/Villar tally pushes Erap's standing even if Erap's figure doesn't move. Remember that Erap's captured "Masa" voters are solid and will very likely to grow due to the negative publicity that each of the candidates has thrown against the other.

While the other candidates engage in cut-throat gymnastics not only in front of the Filipino people but in the whole world as well, Erap is sitting pretty, waiting for his time to pack his bags from San Juan and move in style to the Palace along Pasig River. Just like the old times, when we (the middle class and the elite) all said that Erap is not going to win, we are once again in for the greatest surprise of our lives. Brace yourselves for the return of President Joseph Estrada.

Whoever becomes the next president, the Filipino people deserves him. We get what we deserve!