The Looming 2nd Reign of Joseph Estrada

I was asked by a friend who do I think will be the next President of the Philippines. I said Erap's second coming is looming. My friend thought I was just joking but when I said that Erap is once again moving in to Malacanang Palace after May 11 national polls, he knew I was serious in my prediction.

Why do I say Erap is going to be President again? In Philippine setting, winnability is a matter of mathematics. Ever since the two-party system was abolished (or abandoned in practice) by the traditional politicians, the multi-party system has set the stage for strategic alliances, thereby giving birth to the numbers game during elections. There are more people now eating the pie. This means that the voting populace will be distributed. The candidate that wins the election will not win by majority votes but by dominant minority votes.

Erap has a strong solid base in the voting "Masa". They number close to 7M which is around 14% of the voting population. The candidate that will capture at least 20% of the voters will most likely win the presidential race. The way things are going, the other presidential hopefuls (aside from Noynoy and Villar) are making good in the surveys and the figures are improving as the election draws nearer. Those who are not voting for Noynoy or Villar will most likely vote for the tailing candidates. This event puts Erap at the advantage side because every drop in Noynoy/Villar tally pushes Erap's standing even if Erap's figure doesn't move. Remember that Erap's captured "Masa" voters are solid and will very likely to grow due to the negative publicity that each of the candidates has thrown against the other.

While the other candidates engage in cut-throat gymnastics not only in front of the Filipino people but in the whole world as well, Erap is sitting pretty, waiting for his time to pack his bags from San Juan and move in style to the Palace along Pasig River. Just like the old times, when we (the middle class and the elite) all said that Erap is not going to win, we are once again in for the greatest surprise of our lives. Brace yourselves for the return of President Joseph Estrada.

Whoever becomes the next president, the Filipino people deserves him. We get what we deserve!